Fantasy Baseball Fight Club: Didi Gregorius or Jorge Polanco
By Gavin Tramps
Both the Minnesota Twins Jorge Polanco and the New York Yankees Didi Gregorius have enjoyed the best season of their career, but which one should you draft next year?
The AL Wild Card Game will feature two of the game’s most intriguing shortstops as we look ahead to the 2018 fantasy baseball season. Jorge Polanco of the Twins and Yankees’ Didi Gregorius will face each other in the one-game Wild Card playoff.
Shortstop is no longer the weak position of previous years, but unless you intend to invest early in Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner or Corey Seager, will you be confident starting either Polanco or Gregorius week in, week out next season?
The position has been strengthened this season with Paul DeJong and Tim Beckham appearing from nowhere, and it will be interesting to see whether either can repeat this season’s success.
Astros’ third baseman Alex Bregman finally looks like a former first-rounder and will carry shortstop eligibility into 2018., With only 14 appearances at shortstop, Chris Taylor, one of the revelations of the season, will miss out in most leagues.
There will be plenty of shortstop discussion between now at the start of the season.
Didi Gregorius (SS-NYY)
Gregorius built on 2016’s 20-homer breakout season with 25 long balls this year, breaking Derek Jeter’s record for the most by a Yankees’ shortstop. The Indians’ Francisco Lindor and Orioles’ Manny Machado were the only shortstops to go deep more often this season.
The 27-year-old’s slash line of .287/.318/.478 is a career-best. He also had career-highs of 73 runs and 87 RBI. The only one of the standard fantasy categories in which Gregorius failed to set a new high mark was stolen bases. He attempted just four steals, being successful on three occasions.
Gregorius finished the regular season with a 107 wRC+, ranking him as the eighth most productive shortstop, although he drops in fantasy baseball to 15th according to the ESPN Player Rater and 12th on CBS in both their roto and points rankings.
Two consecutive 20+ homer seasons makes the power look legitimate, but the 4.4% walk rate suggests erratic plate discipline with the likelihood of extended slumps. Only six qualified hitters (regardless of position) walked less than Gregorius’ 25 times.
The Dutch-born infielder has good job security, although the Yankees hope top prospect Gleyber Torres will be ready for Spring Training, after missing the second half of the season with Tommy John surgery in his non-throwing arm. Torres plays second, third and shortstop, and with Starlin Castro and Chase Headley both contracted into 2018, there is no obvious opening for Torres. Gregorius will need to keep hitting to keep the youngster’s ambitions away from the shortstop position.
Jorge Polanco (SS-MIN)
This season, 31 shortstops hit at least 12 home runs, and 19 swiped at least 12 bags. With the proliferation of power across the game, stolen bases are increasingly valuable. Only eight shortstops recorded 12 of each, and one of these 12/12 players was the Twins’ Jorge Polanco.
Polanco was fantasy baseball liability for the first four months of the season, slashing .213/.265/.305 up to the end of July.
As the calendar turned to August, and fresh from a four-game breather on the pine, Polanco transformed into a five-category contributor. He slashed .316/.377/.553 with 10 home runs and seven stolen bases.
In the final two months of the season, while we watched the exploits of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa and even Tim Beckham, it was Polanco who led the position with 42 RBI.
He was third with 15 doubles, fifth with 10 home runs, 13th with 28 runs, fifth with seven stolen bases and his .319 average was the third best at the position.
It took the Twins three weeks to believe Polanco’s production was legitimate before they moved him from the bottom of the lineup to third. If he can stay in the heart of the order next season, the counting stats will be boosted.
With top prospect Nick Gordon unlikely to debut until 2019, there is no one in the minor leagues to compete for the shortstop job next season, although Polanco will need to hold off versatile teammate Eduardo Escobar.
With Miguel Sano on the DL, Escobar has been playing third base but will relinquish the hot corner when Sano returns. Escobar, with a career .697 OPS, joined the growing list of unlikely 20-homer hitters, including 11 home runs in the 42 games while Sano was on the DL.
Gregorius has proved that he is capable of putting together back-to-back productive seasons, and he looks like a safe pick in the 2018 draft. The power could continue to grow, so a 30-homer season from your shortstop will be valuable in every format.
Unless Polanco grabs playoff headlines, he will enter next season as a low profile, unhyped shortstop but with the potential to give excellent value.
We are not predicting that he continues the new season the way he finished this year, but based on his production from the start of August, Polanco was on pace for 30 home runs, 120 RBI and 20 stolen bases. The value and potential looks too good to ignore for a late-round pick.