Brewers Domingo Santana: Fantasy Breakout Legit?

By Brad Kelly | Jan 14, 2018

MILWAUKEE, WI - SEPTEMBER 26: Domingo Santana /

Domingo Santana had a career-best season for the Brewers in 2017. But, can fantasy owners believe in the breakout?

The Brewers were one of the surprise teams last season, just missing the playoffs in route to 86 wins. It seems as though Santana has been around for a while, yet he will enter the 2018 season as only a 25-year old. Now coming off a .278/30 HR/8 RBI/15 SB/.875 OPS line, has he finally arrived for fantasy owners?

Santana has always been an intriguing prospect. Scouts had his ceiling very high, yet his floor very low as well. The raw power was never questioned, but his swing and miss tendencies were. He put that all aside last season though, posting career-best numbers across the board.

Looking at Santana’s batted ball data, Santana has produced solid rates throughout the minors and in his brief time in the majors. In 2017, across a career-high 151 games, he maintained those rates by posting 27% LD, 45% GB,28% FB, 49% Med, and 40% Hard contact numbers.

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In terms of his plate discipline, he was able to generate a 12% BB rate and lowered his K rate to 29%. His contact rate stayed at 70%, but he was more aggressive on pitches in the zone, raising that rate by 7% up to 69% from 2016.

The newfound aggressiveness paid off in a big way. On top of the personal best 30 HR, Santana also notched 29 doubles as well. The uptick in the XBH and BB rate translated immediately into his OPS, offering him an aspect of his game that some fantasy owners were skeptical of.

Thanks to his ability to square the ball up as frequent as he does, Santana continues to post high BABIP numbers. Last season, it was a healthy .363 clip over 600+ plate appearances. With him being more aggressive and controlling the zone better, and with a steady stream of at-bats finally, his AVG flirted with the .280 mark.

It is hard to project another .280 type of season, he still strikes out 30% of the time. But fantasy owners can feel confident that he can sit comfortably in the .260-.270 range, a welcome sight for owners nonetheless.

The Brewers have also quietly built a great blend of power and speed in their order. Santana finds himself surrounded by Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, and Travis Shaw, with interesting speed options Orlando Arcia and Jonathan Villar in the mix as well. Offering him another solid chance at posting 80+ R/80+ RBI again.

Santana is a big dude, 6’5 and 225, but runs well and is not afraid to snag a base when it is open. He attempted 19 steals last season, a career-high once again, and the Brewers also happen to be one of most aggressive teams on the base paths in the league. So there is no reason to think that Santana will stop running in 2018.

Playing in Miller Park certainly helps his power as well,18 of his 30 HR came in Milwaukee and the locale offers a nice stabilizing force for owners to believe in as well.

Another encouraging aspect of his 2017 season, were his splits. For a free swinger, he handled righties to the tune of a .276/24 HR/62 RBI/.870 OPS line. He did well against lefties as well, .286/6 HR/23 RBI/.892 OPS, further establishing his case.

Next: Fantasy Baseball 2018: Multi-position hitters to target

The Brewers outfield may have some outfield options with, Braun, Keon Broxton, Brett Phillips, and Hernan Perez in tow. Yet, Santana has the most upside at this point in his career, and Craig Counsell has already said that Santana will find his way into the lineu.p. Believe in the breakout, and target Santana in drafts this spring.

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