Top-15 fantasy baseball pitching prospects for 2018
By Gavin Tramps
We take a look at the pitching prospects that will impact fantasy baseball leagues in 2018.
To paraphrase the true inventor of baseball, it is a truth universally acknowledged, that a starting pitcher in possession of the good fortune to be healthy, will soon land on the DL.
Pitching prospects are exciting and enthralling. They lure you like a mythical siren to shipwreck on their rocky coast. They tempt you into imagining the next Pedro or Kershaw or Lincecum.
In reality, it is little more than a coin toss. If you are lucky, you could get the next Zack Greinke, if not, the next Bryan Bullington (the No.1 pick in the 2002 draft when Greinke went sixth).
The year after he was drafted with the first overall pick, the recently retired Mark Appel was widely acknowledged as a top-10 pitching prospect. He isn’t alone in failing to reach the high expectations, the No.9 pitching prospect that year was Danny Hultzen, No.11 Taylor Guerrieri and No.12 Kyle Zimmer.
The acronym TINSTAAPP is as appropriate now as it was when coined in 2007. There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect tries to highlight the likelihood that pitchers get injured or fail to meet expectations far more often than position players. But despite all of the warnings to the contrary, we in the fantasy baseball world love pitching prospects.
Unlike other lists, we are not focusing on players who are two, three or more years from the majors; we are looking at the pitchers that will make contribute in fantasy leagues this season. And this year’s list is stacked with talent.
Although, just before we get started with the top-15, we’ll take a quick look at pitchers you need to know for dynasty leagues.
LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS
We will shortly publish a separate article dedicated to pitchers you need to know in dynasty leagues, but in the meantime, here are five of our favorites. Maybe one of them is the next Clayton Kershaw.
Forrest Whitley (SP-HOU)
All you need to know about the first-rounder from the 2016 draft is that he had a 13.9 SO/9 strikeout rate over 92⅓ innings across three levels of the minors last season, while posting 2.83 ERA. The 20-year-old is MLB’s No.2 right-handed pitching prospect and should be up in the majors next year. ETA 2019.
Mitch Keller (SP-PIT)
Heir to the rotation ace title in Pittsburgh since the departure of Gerrit Cole, the 21-year-old struck out a batter per inning across three levels of the minors with a 3.03 ERA. He then finished the season as the best pitcher in the Arizona Fall League with an 8-0 record in 12 starts. Keller possesses an impressive arsenal, great command and the ability to reach back and touch 98-mph when necessary. ETA 2019.
Triston McKenzie (SP-CLE)
The 20-year-old continues to defy the doubters that he can be a No.1 starter due to his slight frame. Despite being four years younger than the league-average, McKenzie struck out 186 batters over 143 innings in High-A with 3.46 ERA. He controls three excellent pitches and will be a stud if he fills out without losing his dynamic delivery. ETA 2020.
Sixto Sanchez (SP-PHI)
If chicks didn’t dig the long ball, they would dig triple-digits. Sanchez has an exceptional fastball from a pitcher who looks smaller than his official height of 6-foot-0. He struck out 84 batters over 95 innings in A-ball with 3.03 ERA. The 19-year-old draws comparisons with Pedro Martinez. ETA 2020.
MacKenzie Gore (SP-SDP)
The third overall pick from the 2017 draft is a long way from the majors but possesses the projectability that makes prospect evaluators salivate. The left-hander threw 21⅓ innings with 34 strikeouts and 1.27 ERA in seven starts in Rookie ball. He is the No.1 left-handed pitching prospect according to MLB Pipeline, although it will be interesting to see whether higher-level hitters are as mesmerized by his deceptive delivery. ETA 2020.
JUST MISSED THE CUT
Jose De Leon (SP/RP-TB)
The Puerto Rican has lost his appeal in the fantasy world but there is still value for the former top prospect. If you focus on the upside, then he posted 2.61 ERA with 111 strikeouts in 86⅓ innings over 16 starts with 0.94 WHIP in Triple-A in 2016. Injuries limited him to just 41 dreadful innings last season, and it is his durability that is the biggest red flag. He possesses three quality pitches that he can control, but unless he can show the ability to stay healthy, he will be transitioned to the bullpen forever. The 25-year-old will be given the opportunity to compete for a rotation spot, and his RP-eligibility will give an added bonus if you play in a league where that is valued.
Kyle Wright (SP-ATL)
The fifth overall pick from the 2017 draft is on the fast-track to the majors. He made nine starts in Rookie ball and High-A with 9.5 SO/9, 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He controls all four of his impressive pitches which could see him debut in the majors this season. Don’t overpay for a cup of coffee.
Mike Soroka (SP-ATL)
The 20-year-old, taken with the 28th pick of the 2015 draft, is a control pitcher who dominated Double-A as a 19-year-old last season with 2.75 ERA and 125 strikeouts in 153⅓ innings. He has made 50 starts over the last two seasons and looks like a mature, composed pitcher on the mound. He does not have overpowering velocity, but the polish and mix of pitches could result in a long-lasting Major League career.
Jon Duplantier (SP-ARI)
One of Arizona’s top prospects, the former third-rounder produced an exceptional 2017 campaign with 165 strikeouts over 136 innings (10.9 SO/9) and a minuscule 1.39 ERA. It was not a statistical mirage, as the right-hander possesses a four-pitch arsenal that he commands well. Shoulder and elbow issues in his past wave a big red flag as to his future as an ace. Ride him until he drops.
THREE MORE THAT JUST MISSED THE CUT
Erick Fedde (SP-WAS)
The 25-year-old dropped off the prospect map after 4.76 ERA in Triple-A and 9.39 ERA in the majors. He did not cope well with the transition from starter to bullpen and back to the rotation again. The Nationals are not overwhelmed with starting pitching options, so the right-hander will likely be given another shot at the rotation. If Fedde can get his sinker/slider/changeup mix working as it did in Double-A, he could get back to inducing 50% ground balls with nearly a strikeout per inning. Maybe he could have unexpected fantasy value this season.
Stephen Gonsalves (SP-MIN)
The 22-year-old has 86 starts of experience in the minor leagues, covering five years, so his MLB debut should occur this season. He is arguably the second-best prospect within the Twins’ organization (behind Royce Lewis) and showed improvements in control and velocity last season. Standing 6-foot-5, he is a typical crafty lefty with a low-90s fastball and strikeout changeup. Most impressive is the 2.39 ERA over 478⅓ innings in his Minor League career. Although he will likely start the season in Triple-A, the left-hander could become an innings-eater for the Twins by midseason.
Sandy Alcantara (SP/RP-MIA)
The 22-year-old was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna to St Louis, dramatically improving his chances of producing any fantasy value this season. It will far be easier to get starts in the Marlins’ rotation. The Dominican possesses a fastball that can touch 100-mph, backed up by an effective slider and a useful changeup. Unfortunately, he has erratic control of all three pitches. Alcantara has top-100 prospect pedigree, and this season, he will have RP-eligibility to give extra appeal in certain league formats.
NUMBER 15
Brandon Woodruff (SP-MIL)
On the back of his 173-strikeout season (9.90 SO/9) in the minors in 2016, the right-hander entered last season as one of the most intriguing fantasy pitching prospects. He made 25 starts between Triple-A and the majors with 4.49 ERA and a reduced strikeout rate of 7.70 SO/9. His big league career started so well, allowing just four earned runs in his first four starts, but he was tagged with 19 earned runs over the next four. Woodruff will be in the mix for a starting job in Spring Training and should not be overlooked in fantasy on the basis of four starts.
NUMBER 14
Chance Adams (SP-NYY)
The 23-year-old displayed excellent control and command with 1.08 WHIP over 150 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He recorded 8.10 SO/9 and an impressive 2.45 ERA. Although he profiles as a reliever, the right-hander has made 46 starts over the last two seasons. Adams has Luis Severino potential if he can develop a third pitch, but that is a big if. Make sure you pick him up just before he reaches the majors. The Yankees provide good win-potential for all of their starters.
NUMBER 13
A.J. Puk (SP-OAK)
Taken with the sixth overall pick of the 2016 draft, the left-hander accumulates strikeouts for fun but is often let down by his erratic control. At 6-foot-7, he looks dominant on the mound and recorded one of the most impressive strikeout rates in the minors last year of 13.2 SO/9 across High-A and Double-A with a 4.03 ERA.
His impressive fastball/slider combination is backed up by an improving curveball and a usable changeup. The big concern is the lack of consistency of his delivery. If he can make adjustments to repeat his action pitch-after-pitch, then Puk has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the game. After all, how many left-handers possess four pitches, one of which reaches the high-90s? The Athletics are never shy about promoting their pitching prospects, so there is the opportunity for the 22-year-old to be starting in the big leagues by midseason.
NUMBER 12
Max Fried (SP/RP-ATL)
It has been a tough journey for the Padres’ first-round pick from the 2012 draft, but he is set to impact fantasy leagues in 2018, either from the bullpen or hopefully as a starter. After a rough start to the year, the left-hander posted a 2.36 ERA over his final 42 innings (nine starts and four relief appearances). He then went on to shine in the Arizona Fall League with 23 strikeouts in four starts. There is significant prospect fatigue with Fried, but he has an excellent curveball with above-average fastball and changeup. He has interesting buy-low appeal. The 24-year-old will get a chance to audition for the rotation in Spring Training but will almost definitely be in the big leagues this season. If you play in a league that values RP-eligible starters, Fried has added fantasy worth.
NUMBER 11
Ryan Borucki (SP/RP-TOR)
After disappointing in 2016, the 23-year-old impressed at three levels of the minors last season with 2.93 ERA over 150 innings and 9.40 SO/9. Although he has not tasted big league action, the left-hander will enter Spring Training with a good shot at breaking camp. Even if Aaron Sanchez is healthy, the Blue Jays’ rotation is still a man short. If the 23-year-old gets a shot at the rotation, he will offer additional fantasy appeal in leagues that value starting pitchers with RP-eligibility.
NUMBER 10
Kolby Allard (SP-ATL)
Although the left-hander thrived in Double-A last season with 129 strikeouts in 150 innings and 3.18 ERA, his strikeout rate dropped in comparison to his outings at the lower level in 2016. He possesses a three-pitch mix, including a tremendous, high-movement fastball. The 20-year-old has control and composure that belies his youth. He is not unlikely to make the Opening Day roster, but expect Allard to be one of the first pitchers promoted, and he will have an immediate fantasy impact.
NUMBER NINE
A.J. Minter (RP-ATL)
The 24-year-old experienced five leagues last season, culminating with 16 appearances in the majors with an eye-watering 43.3% strikeout rate. The former second rounder from the 2015 draft faced 60 batters in his taste of Major League action, striking out 26 while posting a 3.00 ERA (0.96 FIP).
He utilizes a high-90s fastball with a rapidly improving cutter. Although the left-hander has only pitched 74 innings as a professional, he offers exceptional fantasy value as one of the most exciting relief pitcher prospects since Kenley Jansen. Don’t invest too heavily in Arodys Vizcaino on draft day, the Braves’ closer job might be Minter’s before the end of April.
NUMBER EIGHT
Tyler Mahle (SP-CIN)
The 23-year-old dominated Minor League hitters with 2.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with 8.60 SO/9 in 24 starts, before tossing 20 innings in the majors for a flattering 2.70 ERA.
Roster Resource shows injury-prone Homer Bailey and Brandon Finnegan occupying two of the Reds’ rotation spots, so Mahle could be up in the big leagues as early as Opening Day. If not, he will be the first to get the call.
To stick in the majors, the former seventh-round pick will need to add a reliable third pitch to his fastball/slider mix, but he is one of the most interesting fantasy pitching prospects for 2018.
NUMBER SEVEN
Luiz Gohara (SP-ATL)
The Brazilian looked like one of the best pitchers in the minors last season with 10.7 SO/9 and 2.62 ERA over 25 starts. He was rewarded with a promotion to the majors and struck out more than a batter per inning over his 29 inning debut stint.
He is still only 21-years-old and oozes fantasy potential, although that might need to be held in check as the Braves rotation looks set with the addition of the two 30-somethings Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir.
It is difficult to recommend drafting Gohara until we have a better idea of the Braves’ rotation intentions. If your bench is deep enough, you must take a gamble on the lefty who flirts with triple-digits.
NUMBER SIX
Jack Flaherty (SP-STL)
The former first-round pick looked great in the minors over 25 starts with 8.90 SO/9 and 2.18 ERA before a disappointing call-up to the majors where he posted 6.33 ERA in five starts.
Flaherty has added a bit extra to his fastball and works it well with the slider and curveball, but it is his changeup that is the special pitch.
With Miles Mikolas expected to make the Cardinals’ rotation and with uber-prospect Alex Reyes due to return to action in May, Flaherty will likely keep stretched out in Triple-A until summoned to the majors. He has exciting upside with a surprisingly high floor, and you don’t get to say that about many pitchers.
NUMBER FIVE
Alex Reyes (SP-STL)
In 2016, the Cardinals’ top prospect tossed 46 innings in the majors with 1.57 ERA. Even if you take out the relief appearances, it was still a very impressive 2.20 ERA with 9.10 SO/9 in five starts. Understandably the fantasy community is excited about his return.
The 23-year-old is expected to join the Cardinals’ rotation at the start of May, but there is a huge amount of blind faith that he will return from Tommy John surgery with minimal loss of velocity or control. Although some pitchers make it back in just over one year, it is often 18 months to two years until they have regained their command and velocity.
Reyes will be a highly sought-after commodity on draft day and could be a very valuable fantasy asset, but I’m inclined to stay away. There is a lot of risk with minimal room for a return considering his likely ADP.
NUMBER FOUR
Walker Buehler (SP/RP-LAD)
The 23-year-old is poised to join the Dodgers’ rotation at the first opportunity, which given the fragility of Hyun-jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood, Rich Hill and Clayton Kershaw, could be sooner rather than later. Kershaw was the only Dodgers’ starter to reach 150 innings last season.
The first-round pick from the 2015 draft excelled in the minors with 12.7 SO/9 over 19 starts and a 3.11 ERA. His fleeting debut stint in the majors was less impressive with a disappointing 7.71 ERA in nine innings of relief.
If Buehler cracks the rotation, he could be one of the most valuable rookies in fantasy. He gets an extra boost in leagues where RP-eligible starters have additional value.
If the league is deep enough, draft and stash Buehler, but as with most of the prospects of the list, his 2018 fantasy value is directly linked to when he is called up.
NUMBER THREE
Shohei Ohtani (SP/DH-LAA)
Two-way superstar from Japan will be one of the most exciting players to watch in Spring Training. It is unclear how his talents will be utilized by the Angels, but 150 innings looks like a realistic total. Although he only pitched 25 innings in Japan last season, the 23-year-old was sensational in 2016 with 1.86 ERA over 20 starts and a strikeout rate of 11.20 SO/9 with 0.96 WHIP.
Unlike all of the other pitching prospects in this article, Ohtani is guaranteed a spot in the Major League rotation on Opening Day.
He has an arsenal of five pitches, including his fastball which holds the record as the fastest pitch ever thrown in Japan at 102.5 mph. Although he was regarded as the best player in the world not playing in the majors, there is a high risk that he will not return the value of his ADP.
You have two choices, either reach to draft Ohtani and experience the groundbreaking journey or watch from the sidelines.
NUMBER TWO
Michael Kopech (SP-CWS)
There is an argument that Michael Kopech is the best pitching prospect in the minors. He throws tremendous heat, often topping out at triple-digits with an excellent slider and a serviceable changeup.
The 21-year-old racked up 172 strikeouts in 134 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season, with 2.88 ERA.
The former first-round pick from the 2015 draft arrived with Yoan Moncada as part of the high-profile package that sent Chris Sale to Boston.
If he could guarantee a rotation spot on Opening Day, he would be the No.1 pitching prospect for fantasy, but the rebuilding White Sox are in no rush to promote Kopech. He should be up by midseason, but it would not be a surprise if he doesn’t debut until September.
NUMBER ONE
Brent Honeywell (SP-TB)
The Rays’ top pitching prospect is a personal favorite. He can destroy a lineup with his beguiling repertoire of pitches rather than pure gas. That’s not to say he won’t reach back to find 96-mph when necessary.
After a couple of starts in Double-A, Honeywell made 24 starts in Triple-A last season covering 123⅔ inning. He racked up 152 strikeouts, that’s a rate of 11.06 SO/9. Posting a 3.64 ERA in his first taste of the International League was an acceptable result, but it was considerably higher than the 2.84 FIP (2.77 xFIP).
The right-hander is one of the few pitchers who throws a screwball. It is a devastating pitch which will delight Rays’ fans and neutrals alike. In addition to his screwball and fastball, Honeywell possesses an excellent changeup and an above-average slider. Even his fifth pitch, the curveball, is improving and gives him a true five-pitch arsenal with which to torment opponents.
Game-calling and receiving will be vitally important during Honeywell’s first taste of the big leagues, and with Wilson Ramos behind the plate, the Rays have one of the best. The record for the most no-hitters caught is four. Showing that he knows a thing or two about calling for the right pitches at the right time, Ramos is tied with three, one of which was Jordan Zimmermann’s memorable outing in 2014.
Honeywell, a second-rounder from the 2016 draft will have the opportunity to battle for a rotation spot at Spring Training, although much is dependent upon whether Chris Archer remains in Florida. Everything points to Honeywell becoming a Rays’ starter before the end of April, working to a 160-170 innings limit. With an ADP of 275, you can draft Honeywell 200 picks after Ohtani.
You will regret missing out if you don’t draft him this season.
FINAL QUICK TAKE
We have reviewed nearly 30 pitchers in this article and so many of them, especially those in the top-15 with proximity to the majors, seem like can’t miss prospects. If you look at the MLB Pipeline list of 2016, you have to scroll all the way down to No.81 (Luke Weaver) before you find a pitcher who has been a success. The excitement surrounding Honeywell, Kopech and Reyes is similar to that shown towards Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow and Anderson Espinoza a couple of years ago.