Arizona Diamondbacks: What the humidor means for fantasy
By Bill Pivetz
With the Diamondbacks set to install a humidor this season, how does this impact the fantasy value for the hitters this season?
After being rumored for years, the Arizona Diamondbacks are scheduled to install a humidor before the 2018 season starts. If you’re unfamiliar with what a humidor is, it’s a climate-controlled chamber in which baseballs are stored. The way the humidor works could greatly decrease the numbers of home runs in Chase Field.
AZCentral’s Nick Piecoro has a write-up on the news. They wrote, “When a ball is stored in a humidor, it absorbs water, decreasing its ‘coefficient of restitution,’ i.e., its bounciness…” This means that with a less bouncy ball, they won’t travel as far.
Chase Field is known as a hitter-friendly park. It finished fourth in home runs, first in doubles, fourth in triples and sixth in hits according to ESPN Park Factors. The humidor will likely knock down the stadium’s rankings to the high teens by season’s end.
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The Diamondbacks hitters will see a decline in their power numbers this year. While hitters like Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb will get their fair share of home runs, their teammates’ home run totals could be cut in half this season.
University of Illinois physics professor emeritus Alan Nathan said, “I am very comfortable saying that, with the humidor running at 50 percent and 70 degrees, there will a reduction in home run production at Chase by 25 to 50 percent.”
AJ Pollock or David Peralta going from 14 home runs each last season to hitting 10 this season will affect their fantasy value greatly. Guys like Ketel Marte may not even hit a home run in Chase Field this season. Those extra home runs help fantasy owners playing in Roto leagues.
The humidor affects the starting pitchers in a good way, though. Pitchers like Zack Greinke will still perform like their top-10 ranking expects. Though, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker and Patrick Corbin will go from a 1.2 or 1.3 HR/9 to a respectable 0.8 HR/9 at home. They still need to do their job in their road starts.
The humidor will also affect opposing batters and pitchers, though not as much. Division pitchers will have a more favorable matchup while batters hitting in Chase Field may not hit a home run when they are expected to. Again, this doesn’t change for the star players. They do what they do and do it well.
The Colorado Rockies installed their humidor in 2002. Before that, the team averaged 121.875 home runs per season at home (not counting the 1994 strike season). Since the humidor, the Rockies average 100.75 home runs per season. It’s quick math but it gets the point across that we could see the same regression in Chase Field for years to come.
Next: 2018 Third Base Rankings
When drafting, you still want to target the top Diamondbacks players. However, when adding depth to your team, you may take an extra second deciding between an Arizona player or someone else. The humidor may be the deciding factor.